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Belajar dari Dede
PADA hari-hari belakangan ini, media massa cetak dan televisi menyajikan sebuah kisah tragedi seorang manusia bernama Dede (37), penduduk Kab. Bandung. Tubuhnya dipenuhi kutil, yang pada beberapa bagian badannya berkembang semakin memprihatinkan.

Ujung tangan dan kakinya menyerupai belahan-belahan kayu. Karena itulah dia disebut pula sebagai "Manusia Pohon" atau "Manusia Akar". Bertahun-tahun dia tidak bisa lagi beraktivitas seperti biasa. Kemiskinan menyebabkannya tak bisa berupaya maksimal mengobati penyakit tersebut.

Belakangan diketahui, Dede diserang penyakit veruciformis epidermo displacia dan giant cutoneous horn. Lelaki itu menderita penyakit kutil yang terus membesar dan menyerupai tanduk. Penyakit itu akibat human papilloma virus (HP-V).

Kini memang Dede telah mendapatkan perhatian penuh dari pemerintah dan dirawat di RSHS Bandung. Presiden SBY dan Ibu Ani Yudhoyono meminta Menteri Kesehatan Siti Fadillah Supari untuk melihat langsung kondisi Dede. Kini Dede dalam perawatan dan sejumlah dokter ahli kulit tengah memeriksa penyakitnya secara intensif.

Namun ada yang harus menjadi pelajaran bagi kita atas kasus ini. Yakni betapa belum siapnya kita menangani pasien berpenyakit aneh itu secara memadai. Menurut informasi, Dede pernah diperiksa di RSHS beberapa tahun silam, namun tidak ada penanganan lanjutan. Bahkan mungkin penyakitnya tidak menarik perhatian atau menjadi bahan kajian para dokter.

Kasus Dede mencuat dan menggemparkan dunia kesehatan di negeri ini, setelah stasiun TV dari AS, Discovery Channel dan Fox TV menayangkannya dalam bentuk film dokumenter. Film tersebut ditayangkan di belahan Eropa pada pertengahan November lalu. Seorang dokter AS juga sempat memeriksanya dan mengambil contoh darah Dede.

Tentu kita ikut menyesalkan kejadian ini. Ada beberapa pertanyaan yang menggelitik. Mengapa kasus Dede mencuat setelah pihak asing menyebarluaskannya melalui media elektronik? Apakah kasus Dede akan ditangani secara semestinya oleh dokter-dokter kita jika tak diekspos televisi asing?

Jika kita runut, Dede berdiam di Kec. Cililin, Kab. Bandung. Apakah kepala desa setempat tidak pernah melaporkannya ke kantor kecamatan, lalu meneruskannya kepada bupati? Dengan kasus ini pula kita bisa melihat pelayanan di bidang kesehatan atau boleh jadi bidang lainnya, yang begitu tidak terkoordinasi dengan baik. Banyak pihak yang kebakaran jenggot setelah kasus Dede menjadi perhatian dunia.

Meskipun kini dipermasalahkan tentang etika dokter asing yang memeriksa Dede atau imbalan yang layak bagi Dede dari dua televisi asing itu, kita bisa mengambil hikmah atas kasus Dede. Sebab dengan begitu meluasnya pemberitaan tentang Dede, banyak pihak yang menaruh simpati, termasuk pemerintah. Dengan demikian, bagi Dede sendiri tumbuh harapan untuk sembuh atau paling tidak bisa mengurangi penderitaannya

Tak Ada Teknologi Dapat Deteksi Gempa

Refleksi: Agaknya yang dimaksudkan bukan deteksi tetapi prediksi akan terjadi gempa bumi. Tanpa alat pun bisa diketahui adanya gempa bumi.

http://www.suarapem baruan.com/ News/2007/ 11/29/index. html

SUARA PEMBARUAN DAILY
Isu Tsunami di Bengkulu

Tak Ada Teknologi Dapat Deteksi Gempa

[JAKARTA] Sangat disayangkan adanya imbauan yang di- sampaikan Bupati Muko-Muko Ichwan Yunus kepada warganya agar mengungsi pada tanggal 20 Desember 2007 karena mendengar isu akan terjadi gempa besar 8,5 skala richter (SR) dan tsunami pada tanggal 23 Desember mendatang. Imbauan itu akan menimbulkan kepanikan dan dapat mengganggu perekonomian di daerah.

"Hingga sekarang belum ada pakar dan teknologi yang dapat mendeteksi akan terjadi gempa di satu daerah pada tanggal tertentu. Itu kami sanyangkan imbauan bupati agar warganya mengungsi. Ini dapat mengganggu perekonomian di daerah," kata pakar dan peneliti masalah tsunami, Dr Subandono Diposaptono kepada SP di Jakarta, Rabu (28/11).

Subandono terlibat aktif dalam penelitian tsunami bersama International Tsunami Survey Team di Aceh pada tahun 2004 dan anggota peneliti tsunami pada Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technologies and Their Integration for the Asia-Pacific Region pada tahun 200-2002.

Beberapa kali Subandono mengingatkan, imbauan mengungsi hanya berdasarkan isu dan rumor ini akan menimbulkan kepanikan di antara warganya. Warga akan panik, nelayan tidak berani melaut. Semua itu pada ujungnya akan mengganggu perekonomian di daerah tersebut. Karena nelayan tidak melaut, terjadi kelangkaan ikan sehingga harga ikan melonjak.

Dikatakan, wilayah Bengkulu memang termasuk daerah rawan gempa. Warga dan pejabat setempat harus paham dan menyiapkan sarana penampungan jika terjadi gempa dan membuat jalur evakuasi bila ada gempa diikuti tsumani. Dengan fakta tersebut, memang warga harus selalu waspada dan paham, harus bagaimana jika terjadi gempa. Namun, kapan gempa itu akan terjadi, tidak bisa dideteksi.

"Langkah pejabat setempat sudah bagus menyiapkan sarana penampungan gempa dan membuat jalur evakuasi serta peralatan untuk memberikan peringatan jika terjadi gempa diikuti tsunami. Dengan begitu, warga menjadi waspada. Namun, jangan sampai antisipasi ini menimbulkan kepanikan yang berlebihan," katanya.

Antisipasi

Sementara itu, Gubernur Bengkulu, Agusrin Maryono Najamudin mengatakan, menghadapi isu akan terjadi gempa besar dan tsunami di Provinsi Bengkulu pada 23 Desember mendatang, Pemerintah Provinsi (Pemprov) Bengkulu telah menyiapkan ribuan tenda dan sejumlah mobil tangki air bersih.

"Kita sudah menyiapkan ribuan tenda dan sejumlah tangki air bersih untuk mengantisipasi isu gempa dan tsunami yang akan terjadi di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang. Ini dilakukan bukan kita percaya sepenuhnya atas isu akan gempa dan tsunami di Bengkulu 23 Desember nanti, tapi ini sebagai langka awal persiapan Bengkulu menghadapi bencana," katanya.

Pemprov juga sudah menyiapkan sejumlah beras dan berbagai kebutuhan lain untuk kebutuhan para korban bencana. Tenda, mobil tangki air, dan beras tersebut segera disalurkan ke sejumlah daerah tingkat II di Bengkulu yang berpotensi terkena dampak parah bila terjadi gempa dan tsunami di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang, seperti Kabupaten Bengkulu Utara, Muko-Muko, Kota Bengkulu, Seluma, dan Kabupaten Kaur.

Dari pantauan SP di Kota Bengkulu, sejak beberapa hari terakhir sebagian besar warga Kota Bengkulu yang tinggal di pesisir pantai mulai mengemas barang-barang berharga mereka.

"Semua barang berharga kami sudah dikemas dan dititipkan di rumah saudara yang aman dari tsunami. Ini kami lakukan untuk mengantisipasi kalau isu gempa besar dan tsunami benar-benar terjadi di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang," ujar Tarmidi (38), warga Kelurahan Pasar Pantai, Kota Bengkulu. [143/M-11]

Hutan di Banten Hanya Seluas 2.204 Hektare

Serang?Provinsi Bante

PADA hari-hari belakangan ini, media massa cetak dan televisi menyajikan sebuah kisah tragedi seorang manusia bernama Dede (37), penduduk Kab. Bandung. Tubuhnya dipenuhi kutil, yang pada beberapa bagian badannya berkembang semakin memprihatinkan.

Ujung tangan dan kakinya menyerupai belahan-belahan kayu. Karena itulah dia disebut pula sebagai "Manusia Pohon" atau "Manusia Akar". Bertahun-tahun dia tidak bisa lagi beraktivitas seperti biasa. Kemiskinan menyebabkannya tak bisa berupaya maksimal mengobati penyakit tersebut.

Belakangan diketahui, Dede diserang penyakit veruciformis epidermo displacia dan giant cutoneous horn. Lelaki itu menderita penyakit kutil yang terus membesar dan menyerupai tanduk. Penyakit itu akibat human papilloma virus (HP-V).

Kini memang Dede telah mendapatkan perhatian penuh dari pemerintah dan dirawat di RSHS Bandung. Presiden SBY dan Ibu Ani Yudhoyono meminta Menteri Kesehatan Siti Fadillah Supari untuk melihat langsung kondisi Dede. Kini Dede dalam perawatan dan sejumlah dokter ahli kulit tengah memeriksa penyakitnya secara intensif.

Namun ada yang harus menjadi pelajaran bagi kita atas kasus ini. Yakni betapa belum siapnya kita menangani pasien berpenyakit aneh itu secara memadai. Menurut informasi, Dede pernah diperiksa di RSHS beberapa tahun silam, namun tidak ada penanganan lanjutan. Bahkan mungkin penyakitnya tidak menarik perhatian atau menjadi bahan kajian para dokter.

Kasus Dede mencuat dan menggemparkan dunia kesehatan di negeri ini, setelah stasiun TV dari AS, Discovery Channel dan Fox TV menayangkannya dalam bentuk film dokumenter. Film tersebut ditayangkan di belahan Eropa pada pertengahan November lalu. Seorang dokter AS juga sempat memeriksanya dan mengambil contoh darah Dede.

Tentu kita ikut menyesalkan kejadian ini. Ada beberapa pertanyaan yang menggelitik. Mengapa kasus Dede mencuat setelah pihak asing menyebarluaskannya melalui media elektronik? Apakah kasus Dede akan ditangani secara semestinya oleh dokter-dokter kita jika tak diekspos televisi asing?

Jika kita runut, Dede berdiam di Kec. Cililin, Kab. Bandung. Apakah kepala desa setempat tidak pernah melaporkannya ke kantor kecamatan, lalu meneruskannya kepada bupati? Dengan kasus ini pula kita bisa melihat pelayanan di bidang kesehatan atau boleh jadi bidang lainnya, yang begitu tidak terkoordinasi dengan baik. Banyak pihak yang kebakaran jenggot setelah kasus Dede menjadi perhatian dunia.

Meskipun kini dipermasalahkan tentang etika dokter asing yang memeriksa Dede atau imbalan yang layak bagi Dede dari dua televisi asing itu, kita bisa mengambil hikmah atas kasus Dede. Sebab dengan begitu meluasnya pemberitaan tentang Dede, banyak pihak yang menaruh simpati, termasuk pemerintah. Dengan demikian, bagi Dede sendiri tumbuh harapan untuk sembuh atau paling tidak bisa mengurangi penderitaannya

Tak Ada Teknologi Dapat Deteksi Gempa

Refleksi: Agaknya yang dimaksudkan bukan deteksi tetapi prediksi akan terjadi gempa bumi. Tanpa alat pun bisa diketahui adanya gempa bumi.

http://www.suarapem baruan.com/ News/2007/ 11/29/index. html

SUARA PEMBARUAN DAILY
Isu Tsunami di Bengkulu

Tak Ada Teknologi Dapat Deteksi Gempa

[JAKARTA] Sangat disayangkan adanya imbauan yang di- sampaikan Bupati Muko-Muko Ichwan Yunus kepada warganya agar mengungsi pada tanggal 20 Desember 2007 karena mendengar isu akan terjadi gempa besar 8,5 skala richter (SR) dan tsunami pada tanggal 23 Desember mendatang. Imbauan itu akan menimbulkan kepanikan dan dapat mengganggu perekonomian di daerah.

"Hingga sekarang belum ada pakar dan teknologi yang dapat mendeteksi akan terjadi gempa di satu daerah pada tanggal tertentu. Itu kami sanyangkan imbauan bupati agar warganya mengungsi. Ini dapat mengganggu perekonomian di daerah," kata pakar dan peneliti masalah tsunami, Dr Subandono Diposaptono kepada SP di Jakarta, Rabu (28/11).

Subandono terlibat aktif dalam penelitian tsunami bersama International Tsunami Survey Team di Aceh pada tahun 2004 dan anggota peneliti tsunami pada Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technologies and Their Integration for the Asia-Pacific Region pada tahun 200-2002.

Beberapa kali Subandono mengingatkan, imbauan mengungsi hanya berdasarkan isu dan rumor ini akan menimbulkan kepanikan di antara warganya. Warga akan panik, nelayan tidak berani melaut. Semua itu pada ujungnya akan mengganggu perekonomian di daerah tersebut. Karena nelayan tidak melaut, terjadi kelangkaan ikan sehingga harga ikan melonjak.

Dikatakan, wilayah Bengkulu memang termasuk daerah rawan gempa. Warga dan pejabat setempat harus paham dan menyiapkan sarana penampungan jika terjadi gempa dan membuat jalur evakuasi bila ada gempa diikuti tsumani. Dengan fakta tersebut, memang warga harus selalu waspada dan paham, harus bagaimana jika terjadi gempa. Namun, kapan gempa itu akan terjadi, tidak bisa dideteksi.

"Langkah pejabat setempat sudah bagus menyiapkan sarana penampungan gempa dan membuat jalur evakuasi serta peralatan untuk memberikan peringatan jika terjadi gempa diikuti tsunami. Dengan begitu, warga menjadi waspada. Namun, jangan sampai antisipasi ini menimbulkan kepanikan yang berlebihan," katanya.

Antisipasi

Sementara itu, Gubernur Bengkulu, Agusrin Maryono Najamudin mengatakan, menghadapi isu akan terjadi gempa besar dan tsunami di Provinsi Bengkulu pada 23 Desember mendatang, Pemerintah Provinsi (Pemprov) Bengkulu telah menyiapkan ribuan tenda dan sejumlah mobil tangki air bersih.

"Kita sudah menyiapkan ribuan tenda dan sejumlah tangki air bersih untuk mengantisipasi isu gempa dan tsunami yang akan terjadi di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang. Ini dilakukan bukan kita percaya sepenuhnya atas isu akan gempa dan tsunami di Bengkulu 23 Desember nanti, tapi ini sebagai langka awal persiapan Bengkulu menghadapi bencana," katanya.

Pemprov juga sudah menyiapkan sejumlah beras dan berbagai kebutuhan lain untuk kebutuhan para korban bencana. Tenda, mobil tangki air, dan beras tersebut segera disalurkan ke sejumlah daerah tingkat II di Bengkulu yang berpotensi terkena dampak parah bila terjadi gempa dan tsunami di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang, seperti Kabupaten Bengkulu Utara, Muko-Muko, Kota Bengkulu, Seluma, dan Kabupaten Kaur.

Dari pantauan SP di Kota Bengkulu, sejak beberapa hari terakhir sebagian besar warga Kota Bengkulu yang tinggal di pesisir pantai mulai mengemas barang-barang berharga mereka.

"Semua barang berharga kami sudah dikemas dan dititipkan di rumah saudara yang aman dari tsunami. Ini kami lakukan untuk mengantisipasi kalau isu gempa besar dan tsunami benar-benar terjadi di Bengkulu 23 Desember mendatang," ujar Tarmidi (38), warga Kelurahan Pasar Pantai, Kota Bengkulu. [143/M-11]

Hutan di Banten Hanya Seluas 2.204 Hektare

Serang–Provinsi Banten hanya memiliki 2.204,12 km2 hutan atau 23 persen dari luas wilayahnya 8.800,8 km2. Padahal, Undang-undang No 26 tahun 2007 tentang tata ruang menyebutkan paling sedikit luas hutan sekitar 30 persen dari luas wilayah.

Gubernur Banten Atut Chosiyah mengatakan hal ini dalam acara penanaman pohon bersama Menteri Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi, Erman Suparno, di Kawasan Pusat Pemerintahan Provinsi Banten (KP3 di Desa Sukajaya, Kecamatan Curug, Kota Serang, Rabu (28/11).

Kepala Dinas Kehutanan dan Perkebunan (Dishutbun) Provinsi Banten, Yunadi Syahroni menyatakan, program penanaman pohon di Banten sebanyak 300.000 pohon dari 16 jenis bantuan dari pusat di antaranya jati, mahoni, sengon, mangga, sukun dan kelapa.

Daerah yang rusak akibat penebangan dan kebakaran yang dianggap parah di Banten yaitu daerah Gunung Halimun Kabupaten Lebak. “Yang paling parah hutan kritis ada di wilayah selatan, tapi antara hutan yang ada di Pandeglang dan Lebak, Hutan Gunung Halimun adalah hutan yang paling parah,” katanya.

Berdasarkan data interpretasi citra satelit landsat TM tahun 2000 yang diperoleh dari Dinas Kehutanan dan Perkebunan (Dishutbun) Provinsi Banten, lahan hutan yang paling kritis adalah lahan luar kawasan hutan atau hutan yang dikelola masyarakat sekitar hutan seluas 172.623 hektare. Sementara itu, kerusakan lahan dalam kawasan atau hutan lindung seluas 64.417 hektare.

”Daerah yang paling parah kerusakan lahannya adalah Kabupaten Lebak yaitu seluas 162.203 hektare disusul Pandeglang 54.093 hektare, Kabupaten Tangerang 13.943 hektare, Serang 6.256 hektare, Kota Cilegon 504 hektare dan Kota Tangerang 39 hektare,” katanya.
Dari luas 162.203 hektare di Kabupaten Lebak, lahan kritis dalam kawasan hutan seluas 52.334 hektare dan lahan luar kawasan hutan seluas 109.869 hektare. Di Pandeglang lahan dalam kawasan hutan seluas 11.333 hektare dan lahan luar kawasan hutan 42.760 hektare.
(iman nur rosyadi)

Chávez's power play has echoes of Castro
Venezuelan vote on Sunday could lead to 'big headache' for U.S.

By Chris Hawley
USA TODAY

CARACAS, Venezuela ? If Hugo Chávez gets his way, he'll be calling U.S. presidents "donkeys" and "drunkards" for another 20 years ? at least.

A nationwide referendum set for Sunday could allow the colorful Venezuelan president to stay in office indefinitely. That would let Chávez, 53, continue reshaping Venezuela's economy in the mold of Cuba, and follow Fidel Castro as the self-anointed lifetime leader of an increasingly combative global alliance against the United States.

The consequences could be far more serious than the one-liners, clownish antics and occasional gaffes that have made Chávez a staple on YouTube.

"Venezuela is going to be a big, big headache" for Washington if Chávez wins the referendum, says Javier Corrales, a political science professor and Chávez watcher at Amherst College.

Corrales says an emboldened Chávez could drive up energy prices through his control of Venezuela's oil industry, refuse to cooperate with U.S. anti-drug efforts and undermine the fight against Islamist militants through his economic partnership with Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism.

In Venezuela, tensions have started to boil over as polls show the referendum's outcome is in doubt. Clashes between supporters and opponents have repeatedly turned violent, and one protester was killed Monday. Using his trademark hyperbole, Chávez told a crowd of students last week they could "save the world" by voting in his favor.

Critics fear that a "yes" vote would cement Chávez as a de facto dictator and lead to more of the problems that have begun to plague his self-styled socialist revolution. The economy is still expanding, thanks to record prices for Venezuela's oil, but there are growing shortages of basic goods such as milk, pasta and sugar. The exchange rate for the currency is so distorted that passengers arriving at the Caracas airport are immediately besieged by black-market traders desperate for U.S. dollars.

Even some longtime supporters say Chávez has gone too far in trying to cement his control over daily life. The government is "confiscating the rights of the people," says Ismael Garcia, a member of the National Assembly who helped Chávez regain power after an attempted coup in 2002 but now is campaigning against the referendum. "It's not democratic."

Chávez says the changes will allow him to implement a centralized socialist state better equipped to improve the lives of Venezuela's poor. The reforms would remove presidential term limits, cut the workday to six hours and make it easier for the state to seize private property. "Communal cities" would be established under presidential control, which could allow Chávez to ignore elected local officials. The president also would be able to suspend civil rights in emergencies.

Venezuela's poorest people have been the biggest beneficiaries of the health and education programs that Chávez has financed with record oil revenue. The former paratrooper is counting on their support to stay in power long enough to rival his mentor Castro, who has tormented Washington for 47 years.

"I'm ready. I have the moral strength, the physical strength and the will to continue with you at the helm until at least 2020," Chávez told supporters last week. "And if the strength continues with me, and God wills it, then I'll probably go on to 2027."

A year after calling President Bush "the devil" at the United Nations, Chávez has begun to couple his barbed attacks with words explicitly targeted at damaging the U.S. economy. After meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran last week, Chávez said the falling dollar was "a sign the U.S. empire is coming down," and called on OPEC countries to use the euro instead. His comments helped push oil prices closer to $100 a barrel.

U.S. companies such as Heinz, AES and Verizon have been damaged by Chávez's recent economic changes, which included nationalizing Venezuela's electricity sector and buying out many other companies.

Chávez's office did not respond to a request for an interview. Saul Ortega, a Chávez ally and president of the foreign relations panel in the National Assembly, notes that U.S. companies still do billions of dollars of business a year in Venezuela and says Washington has nothing to fear.

Unlike Castro's Cuba, where dissent is not tolerated, Venezuela is not a police state. Media are allowed to criticize Chávez, although he shut down an independent TV station this year, sparking massive protests. Venezuelans are also free to leave the country anytime, something that thousands have done in recent months to places such as Panama and Florida.

"We're finding our own path," Ortega says. "It's going to be a democratic, free, prosperous, beautiful country, not subject to any external domination."

Visitors to Caracas are aware of the referendum's high stakes from the moment they arrive at Caracas' international airport, where a huge 3-D sign celebrating socialism hangs above baggage claim. From there, the onslaught of revolutionary slogans and crimson banners never lets up.

"Nothing stops the revolution," says one sign hanging from a building downtown. "Full-speed revolution toward socialism!" say signs in the subway.

Chávez's supporters credit him with giving them more of a share of Venezuela's booming economy, which has grown about 10% a year since a massive collapse in 2002. Poverty has fallen from 42.8% in 1999 to 33.9% in 2006, according to Venezuela's census bureau, although progress on unemployment has been mixed.

"The comandante has done so many good things for this country," Aura Eslada, 54, a secretary who wore a red cap and a "Yes with Chávez" T-shirt, said during a march Tuesday. "There's no other leader like him. The opposition doesn't have anybody better to offer."

However, María Elena Sánchez is one of many Venezuelans who are growing frustrated by the economic problems created by Chávez's policies.

"I haven't been able to buy liquid milk in three months," Sánchez says, standing in front of an empty cooler at the Sud-America Supermarket. "This isn't supposed to happen in Caracas, right? The capital is supposed to have everything."

Strict price controls on food items have discouraged companies from producing enough of some goods because they can't turn a profit on them. Controls on buying dollars, in place since 2003, have simultaneously made it difficult for importers to buy abroad.

"Pasta, milk, rice, sugar, wheat flour, sometimes even salt is hard to get," says Wilfredo Chacón, shift manager of the Sud-America. "Sometimes all the deliveryman gives me is one box of 9 liters of milk."

A poll released Saturday by Datanalisis, a respected local pollster, showed 46% of Venezuelans blame the government for the shortages, while 31% blamed businesses. Six months ago, 65% blamed businesses.

Some of the economic distortions border on the bizarre. Airline tickets to and from Caracas are increasingly hard to come by because so many seats are being bought up by Venezuelan currency speculators who can make an easy profit by manipulating the financial system.

The speculators fly to nearby Panama, Aruba and Curacao, where they can charge up to $5,000 to their credit cards and receive U.S. dollars in return from local businesses. Upon returning to Venezuela, the travelers then sell their dollars on the black market at double the official rate ? making thousands of dollars.

"You can't get a flight to those places at any price now," said Eduardo Ablan, a travel agent at Festival Tours in Caracas. "It's all because of the black market."

Even some Chávez supporters wonder just how far he will go. "I think health, education, that's all gotten better," taxi driver William Batista says. "But when he says he w

Chávez's power play has echoes of Castro
Venezuelan vote on Sunday could lead to 'big headache' for U.S.

By Chris Hawley
USA TODAY

CARACAS, Venezuela — If Hugo Chávez gets his way, he'll be calling U.S. presidents "donkeys" and "drunkards" for another 20 years — at least.

A nationwide referendum set for Sunday could allow the colorful Venezuelan president to stay in office indefinitely. That would let Chávez, 53, continue reshaping Venezuela's economy in the mold of Cuba, and follow Fidel Castro as the self-anointed lifetime leader of an increasingly combative global alliance against the United States.

The consequences could be far more serious than the one-liners, clownish antics and occasional gaffes that have made Chávez a staple on YouTube.

"Venezuela is going to be a big, big headache" for Washington if Chávez wins the referendum, says Javier Corrales, a political science professor and Chávez watcher at Amherst College.

Corrales says an emboldened Chávez could drive up energy prices through his control of Venezuela's oil industry, refuse to cooperate with U.S. anti-drug efforts and undermine the fight against Islamist militants through his economic partnership with Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism.

In Venezuela, tensions have started to boil over as polls show the referendum's outcome is in doubt. Clashes between supporters and opponents have repeatedly turned violent, and one protester was killed Monday. Using his trademark hyperbole, Chávez told a crowd of students last week they could "save the world" by voting in his favor.

Critics fear that a "yes" vote would cement Chávez as a de facto dictator and lead to more of the problems that have begun to plague his self-styled socialist revolution. The economy is still expanding, thanks to record prices for Venezuela's oil, but there are growing shortages of basic goods such as milk, pasta and sugar. The exchange rate for the currency is so distorted that passengers arriving at the Caracas airport are immediately besieged by black-market traders desperate for U.S. dollars.

Even some longtime supporters say Chávez has gone too far in trying to cement his control over daily life. The government is "confiscating the rights of the people," says Ismael Garcia, a member of the National Assembly who helped Chávez regain power after an attempted coup in 2002 but now is campaigning against the referendum. "It's not democratic."

Chávez says the changes will allow him to implement a centralized socialist state better equipped to improve the lives of Venezuela's poor. The reforms would remove presidential term limits, cut the workday to six hours and make it easier for the state to seize private property. "Communal cities" would be established under presidential control, which could allow Chávez to ignore elected local officials. The president also would be able to suspend civil rights in emergencies.

Venezuela's poorest people have been the biggest beneficiaries of the health and education programs that Chávez has financed with record oil revenue. The former paratrooper is counting on their support to stay in power long enough to rival his mentor Castro, who has tormented Washington for 47 years.

"I'm ready. I have the moral strength, the physical strength and the will to continue with you at the helm until at least 2020," Chávez told supporters last week. "And if the strength continues with me, and God wills it, then I'll probably go on to 2027."

A year after calling President Bush "the devil" at the United Nations, Chávez has begun to couple his barbed attacks with words explicitly targeted at damaging the U.S. economy. After meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran last week, Chávez said the falling dollar was "a sign the U.S. empire is coming down," and called on OPEC countries to use the euro instead. His comments helped push oil prices closer to $100 a barrel.

U.S. companies such as Heinz, AES and Verizon have been damaged by Chávez's recent economic changes, which included nationalizing Venezuela's electricity sector and buying out many other companies.

Chávez's office did not respond to a request for an interview. Saul Ortega, a Chávez ally and president of the foreign relations panel in the National Assembly, notes that U.S. companies still do billions of dollars of business a year in Venezuela and says Washington has nothing to fear.

Unlike Castro's Cuba, where dissent is not tolerated, Venezuela is not a police state. Media are allowed to criticize Chávez, although he shut down an independent TV station this year, sparking massive protests. Venezuelans are also free to leave the country anytime, something that thousands have done in recent months to places such as Panama and Florida.

"We're finding our own path," Ortega says. "It's going to be a democratic, free, prosperous, beautiful country, not subject to any external domination."

Visitors to Caracas are aware of the referendum's high stakes from the moment they arrive at Caracas' international airport, where a huge 3-D sign celebrating socialism hangs above baggage claim. From there, the onslaught of revolutionary slogans and crimson banners never lets up.

"Nothing stops the revolution," says one sign hanging from a building downtown. "Full-speed revolution toward socialism!" say signs in the subway.

Chávez's supporters credit him with giving them more of a share of Venezuela's booming economy, which has grown about 10% a year since a massive collapse in 2002. Poverty has fallen from 42.8% in 1999 to 33.9% in 2006, according to Venezuela's census bureau, although progress on unemployment has been mixed.

"The comandante has done so many good things for this country," Aura Eslada, 54, a secretary who wore a red cap and a "Yes with Chávez" T-shirt, said during a march Tuesday. "There's no other leader like him. The opposition doesn't have anybody better to offer."

However, María Elena Sánchez is one of many Venezuelans who are growing frustrated by the economic problems created by Chávez's policies.

"I haven't been able to buy liquid milk in three months," Sánchez says, standing in front of an empty cooler at the Sud-America Supermarket. "This isn't supposed to happen in Caracas, right? The capital is supposed to have everything."

Strict price controls on food items have discouraged companies from producing enough of some goods because they can't turn a profit on them. Controls on buying dollars, in place since 2003, have simultaneously made it difficult for importers to buy abroad.

"Pasta, milk, rice, sugar, wheat flour, sometimes even salt is hard to get," says Wilfredo Chacón, shift manager of the Sud-America. "Sometimes all the deliveryman gives me is one box of 9 liters of milk."

A poll released Saturday by Datanalisis, a respected local pollster, showed 46% of Venezuelans blame the government for the shortages, while 31% blamed businesses. Six months ago, 65% blamed businesses.

Some of the economic distortions border on the bizarre. Airline tickets to and from Caracas are increasingly hard to come by because so many seats are being bought up by Venezuelan currency speculators who can make an easy profit by manipulating the financial system.

The speculators fly to nearby Panama, Aruba and Curacao, where they can charge up to $5,000 to their credit cards and receive U.S. dollars in return from local businesses. Upon returning to Venezuela, the travelers then sell their dollars on the black market at double the official rate — making thousands of dollars.

"You can't get a flight to those places at any price now," said Eduardo Ablan, a travel agent at Festival Tours in Caracas. "It's all because of the black market."

Even some Chávez supporters wonder just how far he will go. "I think health, education, that's all gotten better," taxi driver William Batista says. "But when he says he wants a socialist state, I honestly don't know what he means."

Even if the vote swings in Chávez's favor Sunday, he may not be able to fully carry out his move to socialism, says Michael Shifter, an analyst at the Interamerican Dialogue, a Washington think tank.

"Venezuelan society is too individualistic, is too chaotic and is not amenable to those tight controls that he wants," Shifter says. "There's a real difference between where he wants to take the country and how far the country wants to go with him."

Chávez blames Bush for not opposing the short-lived 2002 coup against him, and constantly talks of the threat of a U.S. invasion. Washington strongly denies any such plans, and has in recent years mostly chosen to ignore Chávez's rhetoric.

Chávez's continuing demands for higher oil prices and his suspicion of U.S.-led trade pacts could disrupt attempts to form trade alliances that could counter the European Union and China.

"He would like to establish Venezuela as an alternative to the U.S. model of how to do things," says Terry McCoy, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

A recent study by pollster Latinobarometro — as well as an outburst this month by Spain's normally mild-mannered King Juan Carlos, who told Chávez to "shut up" — suggest his influence in the region could be waning. On Wednesday, Chávez said he would no longer have "any type of relations" with neighboring Colombia, calling its pro-U.S. leader "a pawn of the empire."

Venezuela's growing economic relationship with Iran is most worrisome, especially at a time when the United States and the European Union are deliberating more sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear program, Shifter and McCoy say.

On Monday, Chávez presided over the delivery of 200 cars built by Venirauto, a joint venture between the two countries, to health workers and local government officials. Iran and Venezuela also have cooperated in producing petrochemicals, housing and tractors.

Whether relations between Venezuela and the United States improve may depend on Bush's successor. Chávez has professed to getting along better with President Clinton than "the Texan who walks around shooting from the hip."

Opposition leaders would rather start the relationship over.

"We are fighting for the future of Venezuela, for the world of our grandchildren, " says Garcia, the former Chávez supporter. "If in 10 years I have a grandchild and he sits on my knee and he says, 'Grandpa, you were there, and what did you do with my country?' What am I going to say?

"That's why we're fighting this with such passion."

Ideas of a Best Friend

In first grade your idea of a good friend was the person who went to the bathroom with you and held your hand as you walked through the scary hall.

In second grade your idea of a good friend was the person who helped you stand up to the class bully.

In third grade your idea of a good friend was the person who shared their lunch with you when you forgot yours on the bus.

In fourth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who was willing to switch square dancing partners in gym so you wouldn't have to be stuck do-si-do-ing with Nasty Nick or Smelly Susan.

In fifth grade your idea of a friend was the person who saved a seat on the back of the bus for you.

In sixth grade your idea of a friend was the person who went up to Nick or Susan, your new crush, and asked them to dance with you, so that if they said no you wouldn't have to be embarrassed.

In seventh grade your idea of a friend was the person who let you copy the Math homework from the night before that you had.

In eighth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who helped you pack up your stuffed animals and old baseball but didn't laugh at you when you finished and broke out into tears.

In ninth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who would go to a party thrown by a senior so you wouldn't wind up being the only freshman there.

In tenth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who changed their schedule so you would have someone to sit with at lunch.

In eleventh grade your idea of a good friend was the person who gave you rides in their new car, convinced your parents that you shouldn't be grounded, consoled you when you broke up with Nick [or Glenn] or Susan, and found you a date to the prom.

In twelfth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who helped you pick out a college /university, assured you that you would get into that college/university, helped you deal with your parents who were having a hard time adjusting to the idea of letting you go...

At graduation your idea of a good friend was the person who was crying on the inside but managed the biggest smile one could give as they congratulated you.

The summer after twelfth grade your idea of a good friend was the person who helped you clean up the bottles from that party, helped you sneak out of the house when you just couldn't deal with your parents, assured you that now that you and Nick or you and Susan were back together, you could make it through anything, helped you pack up for university and just silently hugged you as you looked through blurry eyes at 18 years of memories you ere leaving behind, and finally on those last days of childhood, went out of their way to give you reassurance that you would make it in college as well as you hadthese past 18 years, and most importantly sent you off to college knowing you were loved.

Now, your idea of a good friend is still the person who gives you the better of the two choices, holds your hand when you're scared, helps you fight off those who try to take advantage of you, thinks of you at times when you are not there, reminds you of what you have forgotten, helps you put the past behind you but understands when you need to hold on to it a little longer, stays with you so that you have confidence, goes out of their way to make time for you, helps you clear up your mistakes, helps you deal with pressure from others, smiles for you when they are sad, helps you become a better person,and most importantly loves you!